Frederick Kempe, president and CEO of the Atlantic Council of the United States, is optimistic about Turkey and its future despite its having faced so many economic and political difficulties.

Frederick Kempe

“I’ve seen this country go through economic ups and downs. I’ve seen it go through periods of time when the democratic process was in one way or another moving forward or not. Interestingly, at a time when I’m worried about US-Turkish relations, at a time when I’m really worried about Turkish-European Union relations, I’m less worried about Turkey itself,” he says.

Kempe, with more than a quarter-century of distinguished work at the Wall Street Journal behind him when he joined the Atlantic Council in 2006, stresses that Turkey’s best future still lies in its being integrated in Europe and with the West: “That’s still the best place for it to be. The problem with being a bridge is people blow up bridges and bridges crumble. It’s much better to be connected within a community. Turkey will also have more influence in its region if it can leverage the size and influence of Europe and the West behind it.”

During a work visit to İstanbul Kempe set aside some time for Monday Talk, also evaluating the historic meeting between Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and US President George W. Bush on Nov. 5 that resulted in a US promise of cooperation against terrorism perpetrated by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

What’s different about US policy this time that means Turkey can rest assured the US will take the PKK issue much more seriously?

What you see now is that the president put his personal prestige at stake. I think you’ll see more decisive action -- and intelligence support. Much of it you won’t see, but it will happen. Turks may not get what many of them want: the leaders of the PKK rounded up by American military, or Apache helicopters firing on a pickup truck filled with PKK terrorists, but one will certainly see much closer cooperation than we have had thus far.

The United States administration still doesn’t desire a cross-border operation by Turkey, right?

President Abdullah Gül was very wise when he said we have not only an Iraqi neighbor, but we also have an American neighbor. It has never happened in the past that a NATO country has executed an incursion into territory where another NATO country’s troops are operating. It is a sensitive issue from that standpoint. The US certainly should have been more forthright in taking on the PKK problem in northern Iraq much sooner. I understand all the reasons why it hasn’t happened. The north has been a relatively peaceful part of Iraq and problems for the US are greater elsewhere. Some may also believe Kurdish insurgents might be useful against Iran, though they are not desired against Turkey. However, any major cross-border Turkish operation into Iraq would be a mistake. It doesn’t really fix the problem. It could radicalize Kurds within Turkey at a time when the AK Party has really done more for Kurdish minority rights than perhaps any government before. It could push off European Union membership even further.

Looking from the United States, what do you see in Turkey?

We’re facing an historic turning point in Turkey -- that is a turning point in Turkey’s internal politics, a turning point in Turkey’s foreign policy, a turning point in its relationship with the United States, a turning point in its relationship with the European Union. All of historic nature, all coming together at the same time. This is of huge importance to the United States and to Turkey’s neighbors. Richard Holbrook, the veteran diplomat, told me that he considered Turkey to be the frontline state of our current period and he compared it to the role Germany played during the Cold War. It’s on the fault line between extremists and moderate Islam, it’s on the fault line between Europe and the Middle East, it’s on the fault line between chaos and order. It’s on a number of fault lines. First and foremost, Turkey has to decide what it is.

What do you think Turkey is?

Following the elections there is a totally new situation, where it’s less the military that is the guarantor for secularism and democracy and it’s more the AK Party that is the guarantor for secularism and democracy. The AK Party has never had this much influence and power before. Now it has to decide what it’s going to do with this. What course is it going to choose? Thus far, I’m optimistic -- but this is the beginning.

Do you see any vulnerability in the situation?

As it is with many historic turning points, the situation is fragile. You have a whole group of leaders who in the next few years will show whether they’re determined to keep this country on a democratic and secular direction. If so, this country has an exciting possibility of truly being something quite unique, an example for others. I’ve seen this country go through economic ups and downs. I’ve seen it go through periods of time when the democratic process was in one way or another moving forward or not. Interestingly, at a time when I’m worried about US-Turkish relations, at a time when I’m really worried about Turkish-European Union relations, I’m less worried about Turkey itself.

Why are you so optimistic about Turkey’s future?

I’ll say, as someone who worked for the Wall Street Journal for a long time and has been watching this economy develop for a long time, I think the most pleasant surprise to the world business community is that the AK Party leadership has made this a more interesting place to invest and a healthier economy. After the 2002 elections I don’t think people were universally convinced that would be the case. So far Turkey has been one of the winners of globalization. There are a lot of losers out there. For all the problems Turkey is facing, it seems to be finding a way. I’m really optimistic about Turkey and its future. I hope Turkey is smart enough to know that its best future still lies being integrated in Europe and integrated with the West. That’s still the best place for it to be. The problem with being a bridge is people blow up bridges and bridges crumble. It’s much better to be connected within a community. Turkey will also have more influence in its region if it can leverage the size and influence of Europe and the West behind it.

You mentioned Turkey’s foreign policy as another turning point.

We’re seeing a development of a Turkish foreign policy. It’s a mature country saying, “We have our own interests.”

Doesn’t this make it a difficult partner for the United States?

Yes, but it also becomes a more important partner for the United States because of the closer relationship it’s building with its neighbors. We’ve left the unipolar world where the US was by far the dominant power. We’re in a multi-polar world where the US is coming to terms with the fact that it has to manage a number of different interests if it wants to achieve its policy goals.

Do you think Turkey’s relations with the European Union and the United States will recover soon?

Relations are threatening to turn sour both with the EU and the US at the same [time] for the first time. It needs attention. Strains with the EU are far more important. Whatever we’re going through in US-Turkish relations, we’ll get over and we’ll be friends and will work with each other again. The larger question is, will Turkey become part of Europe and become a member of the European Union?

Do you think it will happen?

It’s long way off. We’re talking about 2014. A lot can happen between now and 2014. What I worry about is what Turks and Europeans will decide before we’ve gone through the process. Turkey brings Europe a vibrant, large economy, which it needs to be competitive on the world stage. It brings a relatively youthful country -- desperately needed in aging Europe. It gives Europe reach into neighboring economies: the Caucasus, Central Asia, the Middle East.

Do you think the US government is still supportive of Turkey’s EU membership?

Senior US officials consider Turkish membership of the European Union to be the most important geopolitical action that the European Union could take -- even though only 9 percent of Turks like us at the moment, if you believe the polls.

Why do you think Turkish public support for the US is so low?

It surprises me. I think Turks have forgotten how much the US has stood on their side vis-à-vis the European Union. I think Turks have forgotten it was the Americans who turned over PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan. I think what is driving the relationship at the moment is the PKK issue, is the Iraq issue. Bush in general isn’t popular in the world, but it’s a mystery to me that the Unites States is less popular in Turkey than almost any other country in the entire world.

Turkish people believe that the United States has planned the establishment of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq.

The US has been working very hard to keep an integrated, federal Iraqi regime. The second-most-powerful politician in Iraq is Kurdish -- that’s the reality. In the United States there are many voices who believe that Iraq, like Bosnia, will only work if you separate the Sunnis and the Shias, because they are never going to get along together -- and that would then suggest that you will also need to separate the Kurds. You may need a looser federal structure. Everyone knows the most successful part of Iraq thus far has been the Kurdish portion. It hasn’t been the conspiracy of the United States to move things in that direction. It’s more of an outcome of a very ugly few years in Iraq, where the Kurdish territory of Iraq has been the most peaceful and most economically successful.

Why do you think this is so?

Partly because they were really acting quite separately from Iraq, even during the period of Saddam. So this is not a totally new situation.

So the US wasn’t surprised by the situation in northern Iraq. Again, Turkish people think that the reason the Kurdish leaders are so powerful is because the US supports them.

If only the US was effective as the Turks give us credit for being! If you look at the rest of Iraq and how ineffective the US has been in trying to exercise its will, why would you think they would be any more effective, then, in trying to create a Kurdish state? I don’t think this has been the aim of US policy. The aim of US policy is to make Iraq work, to reduce violence and to create a situation where US troops can be brought home safely.

Does the ‘Armenian genocide’ resolution have a chance of coming to the House floor?

The House committee’s approval of the resolution was the most irresponsible thing that the newly Democratic Congress had done in terms of foreign policy. It was irresponsible because we’re at such a critical point in the US-Turkish relationship. And the relationship between the United States and Turkey is one of the most important bilateral relationships on Earth at the moment. This resolution has been around forever. The fact that it’s being pushed forward at the moment was irresponsible. It won’t now go to the House floor. Turkey should give the Bush administration credit for bringing this to a dead stop. So it gives Turkey an opportunity to look at its own history and archives and to make conclusions, as the Turkish government said that’s what it wants to do. And if Turkey does this, my view is that the resolution will not come forward again.

[PROFILE]

Frederick Kempe

He became president and CEO of the Atlantic Council of the United States in December 2006 after more than a quarter-century of distinguished work at the Wall Street Journal, where he won national and international prizes while serving in numerous management and reportorial capacities. He is a Bloomberg columnist and a regular commentator on television and radio in both Europe and the United States. He has written three books that have been published in several languages: “Divorcing the Dictator: America’s Bungled Affair with Noriega,” “Siberian Odyssey: A Voyage into the Russian Soul” and “Father/Land, a Personal Search for the New Germany.” He is currently working on a fourth book, on the Cold War, in Berlin.
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A wise person wrote in a letter dated 1867, “...nothing so liberalizes a man and expands the kindly instincts that nature put in him as travel and contact with many kinds of people.” If you have the opportunity to travel, do so. Travel is a great “elective course” to take. It provides you with fun and challenge. You have opportunities for practical experience and exposure to how other cultures think and behave.

Turkey offers both historical, magnificent architecture such as the Blue Mosque and Hagia Sophia and many other places, as well as outdoor museums. If you are fit, the trek of St. Paul’s Trails in Asia Minor is a must.

In June, 12 Arkansas teenagers followed the trail of the Apostle Paul in Turkey and Greece by vessel rather than on foot. Not so physically rigorous, but definitely thought-provoking and life changing.

Just think, roughly 1,950 years after the Apostle Paul stood on Mars Hill in Greece and spoke to the Athenians about their monument to the unknown god, a dozen Arkansan teens stood on the same hill and unfurled a banner reading “Footsteps of Faith: We’re All About Paul.” The students had made their banner with each student’s footprint marked in Day-Glo paint colors. How fun and creative.

The stop was part of a 10-day trip to Europe, particularly to visit sites associated with the New Testament in Turkey (Asia Minor) as part of a study project. As preparation for the trip, the six boys and six girls who were chosen had to submit written assignments monthly throughout the year. They wrote papers on different aspects of St. Paul’s writings. The students kept in touch with each other throughout the year by more immediate methods such as Facebook and MySpace. After a year of preparation, they got to see many of the places they had read about. What a wonderful experience and awesome way to study, learn and see for yourself.

One of the requirements in making the trip was to leave their iPods at home. Sometimes we think it would be impossible to live without something. If we stop and think about it: all of us have something in our life we think we can’t live without. The accompanying instructor thought she would get many complaints about this requirement. The instructor said, “Before we got on the plane, it was hard for them, but after that I didn’t hear another word about it,” she said. Travel is so fascinating that we learn there are things we can do without.

Paul’s various ship journeys to Athens, Corinth, Ephesus and Rome spanned more than a decade, traveling by foot and by boat. The Arkansas group sandwiched those spots into a whirlwind trip by ship.

After visiting Athens, the group flew to the island of Samos, which they used as a base for day trips. They also took a speedy hydrofoil boat to the smaller island of Patmos, the place where, according to church tradition, St. John spent his final days in exile.

The travelers also took a boat to Turkey, where they visited the ruins of ancient Ephesus. The group marveled at the acoustics of the coliseum. When an instructor dropped a coin at ground level, students who had climbed to the very top could hear it.

“We talked about how that was exactly where Paul walked in and people looked down to the stage to see him,” said Haley, one of the instructors. The Ephesus tour also included excavations of the homes of some wealthy Ephesians. Walking through a more modern part of Turkey, the group encountered the most aggressive vendors of the trip.

“It was a little bit nerve-wracking,” said Johnston, age 18. “There were a lot more people than we were used to, and everybody’s trying to sell you something.” Experiences like this can be overwhelming.

Traveling puts you on the spot. You have to learn to think and react. You have to make decisions. The instructors who accompanied the students on the trip commented: “It makes you feel good when you see kids looking out for other people instead of being me-oriented.”

Travel provides us with the opportunity to decide for ourselves.

I remember when I was a child there used to be an ad on television about travel. It said: “Travel and see the world! Go Navy!” There are many options nowadays for travel and study programs. If you have the chance, take it.

“Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one’s lifetime.”

“Innocents Abroad,” Mark Twain.

CHARLOTTE MCPHERSON